MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Brandon Young · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Brandon Young · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
starter going deep into a manageable lineup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BAL @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
32%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore NYM by 0.54 runs across 5,000 trials.
BAL SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
65%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
NYM SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
57%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Deep OF, dead air.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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