BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
80-68 · +2 NL WEST · W6 · 7-3 L10
@SUN 7:20 PM ETSF HOME PARK
62-87 · +4 NL WEST · L2 · 5-5 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
70°F · 17mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Nick Pivetta
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
3.43
IP
21.0
K/9
11.1
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
0.95
L5 STARTS3.43 ERA · 31.3% K · 7.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
58%
12%
4-Seam FastballSweeper
Logan Webb
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
4.10
IP
155.2
K/9
7.3
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS7.30 ERA · 22.6% K · 7.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
24%
19%
13%
12%
SinkerChangeupSweeper4-Seam FastballCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD SF

Game Markets

SD @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

SF -1.5

31%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore SF by 0.36 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 3.97, SF 3.61
  • Nick Pivetta (SD) vs Logan Webb (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NP

Nick Pivetta

SD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

24%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

19%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against SF
LW

Logan Webb

SF SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

NICK PIVETTA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.346
vs Left-handedK%29.8%OPS-against.595
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.734K%20.5%

LOGAN WEBB SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.8%OPS-against.606
vs Left-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.667
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs NICK PIVETTA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs LOGAN WEBB

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 2·SF 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SD 9·SF 5
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%SD
SD 169 · SF 156 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12SD 7-6 · One-run game
2026-09-12SD 7-5
2026-08-02SD 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD57¢ · 57%
SF48¢ · 48%
Total 7
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5— · —
SF +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→7→6.5→7→6.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

SF OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT70° · 17mph out to CF
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
70°F
Wind17 mph out to CF
Humidity55%
Rain0%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO