MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Matthew Boyd · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
opp puts the ball in play, holds Ks down
Matthew Boyd · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
opp puts the ball in play, holds Ks down
Matthew Boyd · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PIT @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
60%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
34%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
53%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
PIT projects to outscore CHC by 0.28 runs across 5,000 trials.
PIT SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
40%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CHC SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
82%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
79%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
67%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Wind-dependent — check gametime.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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