BETFLYAISIGN IN
PHILADELPHIAPHI
82-67 · +2 NL EAST · L3 · 3-7 L10
@SUN 1:35 PM ETATL HOME PARK
88-61 · +1 NL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
82°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Andrew Painter
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
5.71
IP
110.1
K/9
7.9
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS4.20 ERA · 22.8% K · 6.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
21%
14%
11%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerSweeperSinkerCurveball
Grant Holmes
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
3.46
IP
137.2
K/9
7.2
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS3.49 ERA · 16.7% K · 9.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
32%
10%
8%
Slider4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Andrew Painter · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

-150 Fanatics60% book75% +15pp

Grant Holmes · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-102 FanDuel50% book61% +10pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI ATL

Game Markets

PHI @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

34%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.06 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.61, ATL 4.45
  • Andrew Painter (PHI) vs Grant Holmes (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against ATL
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANDREW PAINTER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.744
vs Left-handedK%18.3%OPS-against.810
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.732K%21.7%

GRANT HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.9%OPS-against.714
vs Left-handedK%18.2%OPS-against.683
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.709K%22.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs ANDREW PAINTER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs GRANT HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 0·ATL 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
PHI 3·ATL 11
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%ATL
PHI 165 · ATL 171 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12ATL 12-2 · Blowout
2026-09-11ATL 6-5 · One-run game
2026-09-07PHI 1-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI48¢ · 48%
ATL56¢ · 56%
Total 9
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→6.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.285L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

ATL OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 5mph out to RF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity70%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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