MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Christian Scott · Under 14.5 <15 Outs
quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start
Cam Schlittler · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
41%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
43%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
30%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore NYM by 0.88 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
NYY SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
91%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
36%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
61%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Short porch — LH HR heaven.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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