BETFLYAISIGN IN
LOS ANGELESLAD
90-58 · +1 NL WEST · L1 · 8-2 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
73-76 · +3 NL EAST · W1 · 3-7 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
87°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Emmet Sheehan
RHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
5.08
IP
101.0
K/9
10.5
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS5.97 ERA · 30.8% K · 5.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
43%
31%
16%
10%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveball
Eury Pérez
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+116
ERA
3.94
IP
139.1
K/9
9.7
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.24
L5 STARTS6.89 ERA · 20% K · 16.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
15%
15%
10%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperChangeupSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Emmet Sheehan · Over 5.5 6+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

+126 FanDuel44% book70% +26pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDodgers 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

LAD MIA

Game Markets

LAD @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

35%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

24%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

26%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore MIA by 0.97 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAD 4.20, MIA 3.23
  • Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs Eury Pérez (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ES

Emmet Sheehan

LAD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
  • 85% to reach 5+ against MIA
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

19%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against LAD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

EMMET SHEEHAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.6%OPS-against.707
vs Left-handedK%26.2%OPS-against.853
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.743K%21.2%

EURY PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.0%OPS-against.763
vs Left-handedK%28.8%OPS-against.630
LAD vs RHP (team)OPS.763K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs EMMET SHEEHAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

LAD BATTERS vs EURY PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
LAD 1·MIA 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
LAD 2·MIA 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
63%LAD
LAD 59 · MIA 34 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12MIA 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-11LAD 6-2
2026-04-29MIA 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
LAD60¢ · 60%
MIA43¢ · 43%
Total 8.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
LAD -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→8.5→7.5→8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

LAD OFFENSE

.318L15 team wOBA
+2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

MIA OFFENSE

.323L15 team wOBA
+7 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 4mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity73%
Rain12%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO