BETFLYAISIGN IN
KANSAS CITYKC
66-83 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 3:05 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
81-68 · +3 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
72°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Noah Cameron
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.93
IP
160.1
K/9
8.1
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS1.74 ERA · 22.9% K · 7.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
29%
21%
20%
17%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterCurveballSliderSinker
Payton Tolle
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+114
ERA
3.15
IP
137.0
K/9
10.4
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.08
L5 STARTS3.07 ERA · 30.2% K · 6.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
23%
18%
8%
4-Seam FastballSinkerCutterCurveballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC BOS

Game Markets

KC @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

41%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore KC by 0.65 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.82, BOS 4.48
  • Noah Cameron (KC) vs Payton Tolle (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NC

Noah Cameron

KC SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against BOS
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

23%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 82% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

NOAH CAMERON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.647
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.767
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.752K%21.5%

PAYTON TOLLE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%32.2%OPS-against.628
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.701
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.699K%21.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs NOAH CAMERON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs PAYTON TOLLE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 1·BOS 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 1·BOS 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
61%BOS
KC 42 · BOS 66 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12BOS 5-1
2026-09-11KC 3-2 · One-run game
2026-05-20BOS 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC39¢ · 39%
BOS65¢ · 65%
Total 7.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
BOS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7.5→8.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.322L15 team wOBA
+6 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

BOS OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT72° · 7mph out to LF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
72°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity93%
Rain71%

71% rain chance — game may be delayed.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO