BETFLYAISIGN IN
HOUSTONHOU
75-74 · +1 AL WEST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETTB HOME PARK
89-59 · +1 AL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
88°F · 4mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Hayden Wesneski
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.35
IP
45.2
K/9
7.1
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.03
L5 STARTS3.00 ERA · 22.9% K · 7.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Freddy Peralta
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.82
IP
153.0
K/9
8.3
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS2.77 ERA · 18.8% K · 4.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
53%
22%
15%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSliderSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Hayden Wesneski · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

+106 FanDuel49% book76% +28pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU TB

Game Markets

HOU @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

TB -1.5

31%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore TB by 0.36 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 3.91, TB 3.55
  • Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs Freddy Peralta (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HW

Hayden Wesneski

HOU SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against TB
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

HAYDEN WESNESKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.8%OPS-against.632
vs Left-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.570
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.755K%18.6%

FREDDY PERALTA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.742
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.811
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.726K%22.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs HAYDEN WESNESKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs FREDDY PERALTA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 0·TB 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 2·TB 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%TB
HOU 47 · TB 58 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12TB 3-2 · One-run game
2026-09-11TB 3-1
2026-07-05HOU 2-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU46¢ · 46%
TB58¢ · 58%
Total 8
Over54¢ · 54%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5— · —
TB +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→6.5→8→6.5→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TB OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 4mph out to RF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind4 mph out to RF
Humidity70%
Rain24%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO