BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCWS
76-72 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
@SUN 2:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
73-76 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
82°F · 6mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Mike Estabrook K+0.0%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
David Sandlin
RHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
6.66
IP
25.2
K/9
9.1
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS8.44 ERA · 24.4% K · 13.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
28%
16%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutter
Michael McGreevy
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
3.88
IP
155.1
K/9
6.2
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS6.43 ERA · 15.7% K · 7.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
21%
17%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterCurveballSweeperSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS6 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Andrew Benintendi · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

cleanup vs vulnerable arm

+190 DraftKings34% book55% +20pp

Munetaka Murakami · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine

+153 DraftKings40% book59% +19pp

Tristan Peters · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

elite contact + lineup behind sees traffic

+224 DraftKings31% book46% +16pp

Munetaka Murakami · Over 0.5 1+ HR

matchup grade lights up the HR pricing

+440 BetRivers19% book28% +9pp

Miguel Vargas · Over 0.5 1+ HR

matchup grade lights up the HR pricing

+475 Caesars17% book24% +7pp

Kyle Teel · Over 0.5 1+ HR

park + matchup combine

+575 Caesars15% book20% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETWhite Sox 56%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS STL

Game Markets

CWS @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CWS to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

63%

Run Line

STL -1.5

29%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

57%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

CWS projects to outscore STL by 0.92 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 5.43, STL 4.51
  • David Sandlin (CWS) vs Michael McGreevy (STL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
DS

David Sandlin

CWS SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against STL
MM

Michael McGreevy

STL SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against CWS
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
KT

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing David Sandlin
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing David Sandlin
AB

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Sandlin
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing David Sandlin
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing David Sandlin
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
NG

Nolan Gorman

STL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 14% against 15%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Sandlin
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing David Sandlin
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing David Sandlin
BD

Brenton Doyle

CWS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael McGreevy
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Sandlin
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DAVID SANDLIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%31.7%OPS-against.444
vs Left-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.100
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.701K%21.4%

MICHAEL MCGREEVY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.694
vs Left-handedK%14.9%OPS-against.751
CWS vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%23.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs DAVID SANDLIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs MICHAEL MCGREEVY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CWS 1·STL 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CWS 1·STL 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%STL
CWS 13 · STL 17 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12CWS 6-5 · One-run game
2026-09-12STL 7-3
2025-06-19STL 8-6
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CWS54¢ · 54%
STL50¢ · 50%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
CWS -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-33 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

STL OFFENSE

.300L15 team wOBA
-16 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 6mph out to RF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind6 mph out to RF
Humidity70%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
ESTABROOK
Called K rate0.0% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr309

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

WHITE SOX 56%

Mean score sim 5.4–4.5 · projected total 9.9 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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