BETFLYAISIGN IN
CLEVELANDCLE
75-74 · +2 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@SUN 2:10 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
70-78 · +3 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
69°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Sean Barber K-0.3%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Tanner Bibee
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.20
IP
171.1
K/9
7.0
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS5.76 ERA · 17% K · 10.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
23%
22%
16%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSweeper
Joe Ryan
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.72
IP
130.2
K/9
10.0
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS8.51 ERA · 17.3% K · 3.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
14%
11%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballSplit-FingerSinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Ryan Jeffers · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

middle-order + runners-on profile

+175 DraftKings36% book61% +25pp

Kody Clemens · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

form + position drive the RBI projection

+165 DraftKings38% book57% +19pp

Steven Kwan · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

-160 BetMGM62% book67% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTwins 58%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CLE MIN

Game Markets

CLE @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

39%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore CLE by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 3.31, MIN 3.90
  • Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Joe Ryan (MIN)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TB

Tanner Bibee

CLE SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against MIN
JR

Joe Ryan

MIN SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

19%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 40% to reach 5+ against CLE
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joe Ryan
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Joe Ryan
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Joe Ryan
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Joe Ryan
TL

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Joe Ryan
ER

Emmanuel Rodriguez

MIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
AG

Angel Genao

CLE · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joe Ryan
RK

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 23% against 26%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Joe Ryan
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joe Ryan
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Bibee
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Joe Ryan
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TANNER BIBEE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.1%OPS-against.666
vs Left-handedK%20.2%OPS-against.736
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.743K%20.4%

JOE RYAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.3%OPS-against.642
vs Left-handedK%25.6%OPS-against.729
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%20.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs TANNER BIBEE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs JOE RYAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 1·MIN 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 5·MIN 7
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%CLE
CLE 155 · MIN 142 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12MIN 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-12CLE 5-2
2026-07-23MIN 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE48¢ · 48%
MIN56¢ · 56%
Total 7.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
MIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.314L15 team wOBA
-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

MIN OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT69° · 9mph out to RF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
69°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity33%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
BARBER
Called K rate-0.3% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr271

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

TWINS 58%

Mean score sim 3.3–3.9 · projected total 7.2 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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