MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Trevor Rogers · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BAL @ TOR · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
60%
1st 5 Innings
TOR F5
53%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
38%
Run Line
TOR -1.5
41%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore BAL by 0.71 runs across 5,000 trials.
BAL SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
TOR SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
97%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
51%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
26%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
29%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
17%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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