TEXASTEX
72-76 · +2 AL WEST · L3 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-12ARI HOME PARK
ARIZONAARI
Weather
104°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDiamondbacks 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TEX ARI

Game Markets

TEX @ ARI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

ARI F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

ARI -1.5

34%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.06 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: TEX 4.60, ARI 4.46
  • Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KR

Kumar Rocker

TEX SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 40% to reach 5+ against ARI
BP

Brandon Pfaadt

ARI SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

94%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against TEX

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs LHP (team)OPS.777K%17.9%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.695K%22.4%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TEX BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TEX 0·ARI 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
TEX 2·ARI 0
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%TEX
TEX 37 · ARI 0 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12AZ 9-1 · Blowout
2026-05-14TEX 6-5 · One-run game
2026-05-13TEX 7-4
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TEX45¢ · 45%
ARI59¢ · 59%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
TEX -1.5 ·
ARI +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.56.58.55.57.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

TEX OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

ARI OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT104° · 5mph out to RF
CHASE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Slight offensive tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
104°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity25%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DIAMONDBACKS 50%

Mean score sim 4.64.5 · projected total 9.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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