BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
79-68 · +2 NL WEST · W5 · 7-3 L10
@SAT 4:05 PM ETSF HOME PARK
62-86 · +4 NL WEST · L1 · 5-5 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
68°F · 19mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael King
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.00
IP
168.0
K/9
7.7
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS1.44 ERA · 18.9% K · 8.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
27%
19%
19%
SinkerChangeupSweeper4-Seam FastballSlider
Cesar Perdomo
LHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
0.90
IP
10.0
K/9
7.2
BB/9
1.8
WHIP
0.80
L5 STARTS0.90 ERA · 22.9% K · 5.7% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGiants 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD SF

Game Markets

SD @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

SF -1.5

36%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.04 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SD 3.94, SF 4.10
  • Michael King (SD) vs Cesar Perdomo (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MK

Michael King

SD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against SF
CP

Cesar Perdomo

SF SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

78%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MICHAEL KING SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.672
vs Left-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.628
SF vs LHP (team)OPS.673K%23.6%

CESAR PERDOMO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.8%OPS-against.196
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.100
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.709K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs MICHAEL KING

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs CESAR PERDOMO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 1·SF 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
SD 8·SF 5
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%SD
SD 168 · SF 156 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12SD 7-5
2026-08-02SD 5-4 · One-run game
2026-08-02SD 6-5 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD62¢ · 62%
SF43¢ · 43%
Total 13.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5— · —
SF +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→13.5→7.5→13.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

SF OFFENSE

.313L15 team wOBA
-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 19mph out to CF
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind19 mph out to CF
Humidity66%
Rain1%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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