MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Paul Skenes · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
long-leash spot vs softer opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PIT @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
30%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
PIT projects to outscore CHC by 0.79 runs across 5,000 trials.
PIT SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
40%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
27%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
CHC SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Wind-dependent — check gametime.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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