BETFLYAISIGN IN
PHILADELPHIAPHI
82-66 · +2 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK
87-61 · +1 NL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
81°F · 1mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Adam Hamari K-0.7%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Tim Mayza
LHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.23
IP
61.1
K/9
8.7
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.06
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 15% K · 5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
62%
32%
SinkerSlider
Tyler Mahle
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
4.05
IP
131.0
K/9
8.5
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.27
L5 STARTS1.53 ERA · 22% K · 3.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
26%
14%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerCutterSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Bryce Harper · Over 0.5 1+ HR

hot power, Mahle hittable

+525 BetRivers16% book21% +5pp

Ozzie Albies · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

power matchup vs Mayza

-169 BetOnline.63% book68% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 53%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PHI ATL

Game Markets

PHI @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

30%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore ATL by 0.52 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.54, ATL 4.02
  • Tim Mayza (PHI) vs Tyler Mahle (ATL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TM

Tim Mayza

PHI SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

95%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

80%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 76% to reach 5+ against ATL
TM

Tyler Mahle

ATL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 40% to reach 5+ against PHI
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

35%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Tim Mayza
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Tim Mayza
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Tim Mayza
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Tim Mayza
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tim Mayza
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tim Mayza
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tim Mayza
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tim Mayza
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
HK

Ha-Seong Kim

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tim Mayza
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TIM MAYZA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.6%OPS-against.669
vs Left-handedK%21.0%OPS-against.587
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.730K%21.8%

TYLER MAHLE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%17.6%OPS-against.848
vs Left-handedK%26.1%OPS-against.700
PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.710K%22.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs TIM MAYZA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs TYLER MAHLE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 0·ATL 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
PHI 3·ATL 10
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%ATL
PHI 165 · ATL 170 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-11ATL 6-5 · One-run game
2026-09-07PHI 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-06ATL 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI47¢ · 47%
ATL57¢ · 57%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

ATL OFFENSE

.279L15 team wOBA
-37 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 1mph out to LF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind1 mph out to LF
Humidity83%
Rain4%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
HAMARI
Called K rate-0.7% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr346

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PHILLIES 53%

Mean score sim 4.5–4.0 · projected total 8.6 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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