MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Gerrit Cole · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
opp puts the ball in play, holds Ks down
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
47%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
40%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore NYM by 1.18 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
73%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
NYY SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
61%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Short porch — LH HR heaven.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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