BETFLYAISIGN IN
LOS ANGELESLAD
90-57 · +1 NL WEST · W8 · 8-2 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
72-76 · +3 NL EAST · L4 · 3-7 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
85°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Tyler Glasnow
RHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.12
IP
57.2
K/9
10.9
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
0.88
L5 STARTS4.09 ERA · 32.3% K · 10.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
25%
16%
Curveball4-Seam FastballSinkerSlider
Tyler Phillips
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
3.51
IP
115.1
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS3.80 ERA · 25.6% K · 10% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
24%
24%
17%
9%
SinkerSweeperSplit-FingerCurveball4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Tyler Phillips · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-135 Bovada57% book82% +25pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDodgers 63%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

LAD MIA

Game Markets

LAD @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

30%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

21%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

24%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore MIA by 1.48 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAD 4.57, MIA 3.09
  • Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs Tyler Phillips (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TG

Tyler Glasnow

LAD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

38%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.8 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against MIA
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against LAD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TYLER GLASNOW SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%37.2%OPS-against.578
vs Left-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.499
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.742K%21.2%

TYLER PHILLIPS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.2%OPS-against.648
vs Left-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.758
LAD vs RHP (team)OPS.764K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs TYLER GLASNOW

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

LAD BATTERS vs TYLER PHILLIPS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
LAD 1·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
LAD 2·MIA 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
64%LAD
LAD 59 · MIA 33 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-11LAD 6-2
2026-04-29MIA 3-2 · One-run game
2026-04-29MIA 2-1 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
LAD66¢ · 66%
MIA38¢ · 38%
Total 7.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
LAD -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

LAD OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

MIA OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT85° · 8mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity81%
Rain17%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO