BETFLYAISIGN IN
LOS ANGELESLAA
56-91 · +5 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 4:05 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
68-81 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 3-7 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
83°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Walbert Ureña
RHP · LAAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
2.74
IP
131.1
K/9
8.5
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.21
L5 STARTS2.47 ERA · 23.3% K · 8.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
32%
20%
16%
ChangeupSinker4-Seam FastballSweeper
Andrew Alvarez
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.60
IP
95.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
4.1
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS3.31 ERA · 24.8% K · 10.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
25%
14%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETNationals 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

LAA WSH

Game Markets

LAA @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAA to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

34%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.33 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: LAA 4.76, WSH 4.57
  • Walbert Ureña (LAA) vs Andrew Alvarez (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
WU

Walbert Ureña

LAA SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

15%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against WSH
AA

Andrew Alvarez

WSH SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against LAA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

WALBERT UREÑA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.2%OPS-against.559
vs Left-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.621
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.779K%24.2%

ANDREW ALVAREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.656
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.683
LAA vs RHP (team)OPS.675K%25.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs WALBERT UREÑA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

LAA BATTERS vs ANDREW ALVAREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
LAA 0·WSH 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
LAA 0·WSH 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%LAA
LAA 13 · WSH 10 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-11WSH 4-3 · One-run game
2025-06-29WSH 7-4
2025-06-29LAA 8-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
LAA50¢ · 50%
WSH53¢ · 53%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
LAA -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→7.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

LAA OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

WSH OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT83° · 7mph out to LF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity64%
Rain11%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO