MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ian Seymour · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Peter Lambert · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
HOU @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
34%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
TB -1.5
35%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
34%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.23 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
HOU SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
53%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
29%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
TB SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
86%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
30%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
46%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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