MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Luis Castillo · Over 14.5 15+ Outs
starter going deep into a manageable lineup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CWS @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
STL to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
45%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
52%
Run Line
STL -1.5
37%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
45%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.82 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
CWS SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
38%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
STL SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
16%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
36%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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