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CLEVELANDCLE
75-73 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 4:10 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
69-78 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
74°F · 13mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Daniel Espino
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
2.70
IP
10.0
K/9
16.2
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 40.7% K · 7.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
66%
4-Seam Fastball
Connor Prielipp
LHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
5.25
IP
108.0
K/9
9.7
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS6.81 ERA · 25.2% K · 7.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
18%
13%
10%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE MIN

Game Markets

CLE @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

27%

Game Total

Over 8.5

31%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

21%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

21%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore MIN by 1.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.12, MIN 2.87
  • Daniel Espino (CLE) vs Connor Prielipp (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DE

Daniel Espino

CLE SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

51%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

22%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

12%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.6 strikeouts
  • 95% to reach 5+ against MIN
CP

Connor Prielipp

MIN SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DANIEL ESPINO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%45.5%OPS-against.794
vs Left-handedK%38.1%OPS-against.453
MIN vs LHP (team)OPS.680K%22.2%

CONNOR PRIELIPP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.8%OPS-against.712
vs Left-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.842
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.697K%20.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs DANIEL ESPINO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs CONNOR PRIELIPP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 1·MIN 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 5·MIN 6
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%CLE
CLE 155 · MIN 141 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-12CLE 5-2
2026-07-23MIN 3-1
2026-07-22MIN 10-6 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE54¢ · 54%
MIN50¢ · 50%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
MIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.302L15 team wOBA
-14 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

MIN OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT74° · 13mph out to RF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind13 mph out to RF
Humidity33%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO