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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

CIN vs MIL

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Saturday, September 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CIN @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CINCINNATICIN
0·0
MILWAUKEEMIL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

CIN DUGOUTMIL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Dane Myers (R) vs HP

SL84.3
SL84.1
SL85.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Dane Myers in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · DANE MYERS

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIL to win

61%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYDane Myers at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 84 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL

CIN STARTER

Brady Singer

SHAKY
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
88
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 50% · 16% whiffSlider · 27% · 31% whiffSweeper · 14% · 41% whiff

MIL STARTER

Shane Drohan

AVERAGE
5.8
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 30% whiffSlider · 21% · 40% whiffSinker · 21% · 14% whiff

Shane Drohan grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Brady Singer grades poor (Pitching+ 88)

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

CIN MIL

Game Markets

CIN @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

44%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CIN by 0.92 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 4.05, MIL 4.96
  • Brady Singer (CIN) vs Shane Drohan (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BS

Brady Singer

CIN SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against MIL
SD

Shane Drohan

MIL SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
  • 82% to reach 5+ against CIN
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Drohan
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Drohan
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Shane Drohan
HR

Héctor Rodríguez

CIN · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JB

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan
KH

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 58%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.