BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
72-76 · +5 AL EAST · W2 · 3-7 L10
@SAT 3:07 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
73-75 · +4 AL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
78°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kyle Bradish
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.91
IP
152.0
K/9
8.3
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.42
L5 STARTS5.19 ERA · 16.2% K · 12% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
27%
22%
18%
SinkerSliderCurveball4-Seam Fastball
Spencer Miles
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
2.77
IP
87.2
K/9
8.3
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.05
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 30.8% K · 3.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
40%
26%
18%
16%
SinkerCurveballSlider4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL TOR

Game Markets

BAL @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

37%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore BAL by 0.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 4.01, TOR 4.32
  • Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs Spencer Miles (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KB

Kyle Bradish

BAL SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against TOR
SM

Spencer Miles

TOR SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KYLE BRADISH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.711
vs Left-handedK%21.3%OPS-against.781
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.709K%18.9%

SPENCER MILES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.428
vs Left-handedK%21.8%OPS-against.673
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.708K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs KYLE BRADISH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs SPENCER MILES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 1·TOR 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 5·TOR 5
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%TOR
BAL 154 · TOR 188 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-11BAL 7-4
2026-06-07TOR 6-4
2026-06-06TOR 6-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL52¢ · 52%
TOR52¢ · 52%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→8.5→8→8.5→7.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-33 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TOR OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT78° · 6mph out to LF
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity63%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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