Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
MacKenzie Gore · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Joc Pederson · Over 0.5 1+ HR
stuff doesn't play vs his pull side
Ildemaro Vargas · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
power matchup vs Gore
Geraldo Perdomo · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Nolan Arenado · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
barrel% surging, sees enough PAs
Ketel Marte · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Corbin Carroll · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Geraldo Perdomo · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
TEX @ ARI · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
60%
1st 5 Innings
ARI F5
33%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
ARI -1.5
25%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
53%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore ARI by 1.28 runs across 5,000 trials.
TEX SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
34%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
ARI SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
TEX · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
ARI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
ARI · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
TEX · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
ARI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.
ARI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.
TEX · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 31%.
ARI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.
TEX · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 14%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight offensive tilt.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 5.2–3.9 · projected total 9.2 runs · built on locked lineups
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