MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Aaron Nola · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Aaron Nola · Under 16.5 <17 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Chris Sale · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PHI @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
53%
Game Total
Over 8.5
34%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
38%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
41%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
26%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore PHI by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.
PHI SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
13%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.
ATL SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
93%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
86%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
47%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
66%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly, especially to LF.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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