MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Nolan McLean · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
contact lineup limits the K ceiling
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
52%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
36%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.12 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
NYM SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
NYY SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
67%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Short porch — LH HR heaven.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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