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AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

LAD vs MIA

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Friday, September 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD
0·0
MIAMIMIA
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

LAD DUGOUTMIA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.5
CH84.6
FB94.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIA to win

35%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 74 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Los Angeles D wins

39%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

LAD STARTER

Tyler Glasnow

AVERAGE
8.0
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 14% whiffCurveball · 27% · 51% whiffSinker · 22% · 24% whiff

MIA STARTER

Tyler Phillips

SHAKY
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 26% · 6% whiffSweeper · 24% · 33% whiffSplit-Finger · 24% · 35% whiff

Tyler Phillips grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Tyler Glasnow grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Tommy Edman (S)hit 65% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Max Muncy (L)hit 65% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Mookie Betts (R)hit 64% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Kyle Tucker (L)hit 60% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Will Smith (R)hit 63% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Josue De Paulahit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Alex Freeland (S)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Enrique Hernández (R)hit 52% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 52% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Otto Lopez (R)hit 60% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jakob Marsee (L)hit 47% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Javier Sanoja (R)hit 57% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Agustín Ramírez (R)hit 45% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Stowers (L)hit 49% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Esteury Ruiz (R)hit 40% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jared Serna (R)hit 45% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Griffin Conine (L)hit 47% · HR 12%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD MIA

Game Markets

LAD @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

28%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

21%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

25%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore MIA by 1.56 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAD 4.66, MIA 3.10
  • Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs Tyler Phillips (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TG

Tyler Glasnow

LAD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

41%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against MIA
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against LAD
MM

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
WS

Will Smith

LAD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
JP

Josue De Paula

LAD · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
EH

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
AF

Alex Freeland

LAD · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 57%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
AR

Agustín Ramírez

MIA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 22% against 26%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
JS

Jared Serna

MIA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow
ER

Esteury Ruiz

MIA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

42%

Hits

2+ hits

8%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 8% against 10%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Glasnow

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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