MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Cade Cavalli · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Yusei Kikuchi · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
LAA @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
WSH to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
40%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
WSH projects to outscore LAA by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAA SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
48%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
WSH SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
16%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
62%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.