MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Sonny Gray · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start
Sonny Gray · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
KC @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
53%
Game Total
Over 8.5
60%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
63%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
42%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
BOS projects to outscore KC by 0.68 runs across 5,000 trials.
KC SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
84%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BOS SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
56%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Doubles factory (Green Monster).
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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