BETFLYAISIGN IN
HOUSTONHOU
75-72 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@FRI 7:10 PM ETTB HOME PARK
87-59 · +1 AL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
TAMPA BAYTB
Weather
80°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Miguel Ullola
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.86
IP
7.0
K/9
12.9
BB/9
1.3
WHIP
0.86
L5 STARTS3.86 ERA · 37% K · 3.7% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Drew Rasmussen
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
2.88
IP
153.1
K/9
9.2
BB/9
1.6
WHIP
0.91
L5 STARTS3.41 ERA · 23% K · 4.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
27%
22%
12%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupCurveballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU TB

Game Markets

HOU @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

29%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

33%

Run Line

TB -1.5

32%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

30%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

28%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 6.74 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: HOU 3.42, TB 3.32
  • Miguel Ullola (HOU) vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MU

Miguel Ullola

HOU SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against TB
DR

Drew Rasmussen

TB SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MIGUEL ULLOLA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%38.5%OPS-against.891
vs Left-handedK%35.7%OPS-against.500
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.755K%18.6%

DREW RASMUSSEN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.9%OPS-against.490
vs Left-handedK%27.5%OPS-against.591
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.728K%22.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TB BATTERS vs MIGUEL ULLOLA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs DREW RASMUSSEN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 0·TB 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 2·TB 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%TB
HOU 47 · TB 56 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-05HOU 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-07-04HOU 10-8 · Slugfest
2026-07-04TB 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU41¢ · 41%
TB63¢ · 63%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5— · —
TB +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TB OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 7mph out to LF
STEINBRENNER FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Interim park post-Tropicana damage.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity84%
Rain17%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO