MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Matthew Liberatore · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CWS @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
STL to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
STL -1.5
39%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
47%
THE READ
STL projects to outscore CWS by 0.47 runs across 5,000 trials.
CWS SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
37%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
53%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
STL SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
40%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
29%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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