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CLEVELANDCLE
74-73 · +2 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@FRI 8:10 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
69-77 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
79°F · 14mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Parker Messick
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
2.53
IP
167.0
K/9
9.3
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.04
L5 STARTS2.45 ERA · 30.6% K · 5.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
17%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCurveballCutterSlider
Taj Bradley
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.95
IP
159.1
K/9
10.4
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS4.96 ERA · 30.3% K · 10.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
47%
24%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballCutterSplit-FingerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE MIN

Game Markets

CLE @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

31%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore MIN by 0.27 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 3.91, MIN 3.64
  • Parker Messick (CLE) vs Taj Bradley (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against MIN
TB

Taj Bradley

MIN SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 71% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PARKER MESSICK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.1%OPS-against.571
vs Left-handedK%23.5%OPS-against.716
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.744K%20.4%

TAJ BRADLEY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.9%OPS-against.682
vs Left-handedK%28.9%OPS-against.691
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.659K%22.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs PARKER MESSICK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs TAJ BRADLEY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 0·MIN 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 4·MIN 6
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%CLE
CLE 154 · MIN 141 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-23MIN 3-1
2026-07-22MIN 10-6 · Slugfest
2026-07-21CLE 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE55¢ · 55%
MIN50¢ · 50%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
MIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

MIN OFFENSE

.319L15 team wOBA
+3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 14mph out to LF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind14 mph out to LF
Humidity49%
Rain1%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO