MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Dustin May · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CIN @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
57%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
46%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.14 runs across 5,000 trials.
CIN SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
44%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
17%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
MIL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
25%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly with roof closed.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.