MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Chris Bassitt · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Chris Bassitt · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BAL @ TOR · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
TOR F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
TOR -1.5
35%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.55 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
BAL SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
TOR SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
64%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
25%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.