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TEXASTEX
72-74 · +2 AL WEST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@THU 4:10 PM ETSEA HOME PARK
68-78 · +3 AL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
SEATTLESEA
Weather
65°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jacob deGrom
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.96
IP
143.1
K/9
10.9
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS4.46 ERA · 31.3% K · 8.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
36%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveball
Logan Gilbert
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.71
IP
165.0
K/9
9.6
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS5.36 ERA · 27.7% K · 8.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
23%
14%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerCurveballChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jacob deGrom · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-110 DraftKings52% book59% +7pp

Logan Gilbert · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

+100 FanDuel50% book57% +7pp

Logan Gilbert · Under 17.5 <18 Outs

walk-prone, opp lineup turns pitch counts ugly

+125 Bovada44% book51% +7pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TEX SEA

Game Markets

TEX @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

27%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

28%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

29%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

25%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore SEA by 0.25 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TEX 3.36, SEA 3.11
  • Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JD

Jacob deGrom

TEX SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

28%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against SEA
LG

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

23%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.9 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against TEX

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACOB DEGROM SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.8%OPS-against.666
vs Left-handedK%29.9%OPS-against.636
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%22.8%

LOGAN GILBERT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.753
vs Left-handedK%30.5%OPS-against.630
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.699K%22.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SEA BATTERS vs JACOB DEGROM

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TEX BATTERS vs LOGAN GILBERT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TEX 1·SEA 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TEX 9·SEA 5
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%SEA
TEX 155 · SEA 170 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-09SEA 3-2 · One-run game
2026-09-09TEX 10-5 · Slugfest
2026-07-27TEX 7-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TEX48¢ · 48%
SEA57¢ · 57%
Total 7
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
TEX -1.5— · —
SEA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→6.5→7.5→8→7→6.5→7→6.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TEX OFFENSE

.348L15 team wOBA
+32 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SEA OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT65° · 5mph out to RF
T-MOBILE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Notorious pitcher park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
65°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity79%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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