MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Nick Martinez · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TB @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
34%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
47%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.55 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
TB SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
57%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
63%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
ATL SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
65%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
24%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly, especially to LF.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.