AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTB vs ATL
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
Thursday, September 10, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TB Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TB Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDTB Over 3.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 20-for-58 (.345) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TB STARTER
Nick Martinez
AVERAGE- 2.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 104
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
ATL STARTER
Martín Pérez
SHAKY- 2.7
- PROJECTED Ks
- 90
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Martín Pérez grades poor (Pitching+ 90) vs Nick Martinez grades avg (Pitching+ 104)
TB LINEUP
1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 72% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
2Ryan Vilade (R)hit 69% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
3Junior Caminero (R)hit 70% · HR 26%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
4Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 63% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 67% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Nick Madrigalhit 55% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Jorge Mateo (R)hit 54% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Nick Fortes (R)hit 54% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Cedric Mullins (L)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
ATL LINEUP
1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 76% · HR 25%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
40%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 73% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
3Matt Olson (L)hit 72% · HR 31%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
4Michael Harris II (L)hit 73% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
5Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 64% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Dominic Smith (L)hit 61% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Austin Riley (R)hit 61% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Brewer Hicklen (R)hit 59% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Ha-Seong Kim (R)hit 49% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
54%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
41%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore TB by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TB 4.42, ATL 4.99
- Nick Martinez (TB) vs Martín Pérez (ATL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Nick Martinez
TB SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
84%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
77%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
- 12% to reach 5+ against ATL
Martín Pérez
ATL SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
67%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
- 13% to reach 5+ against TB
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Nick Martinez
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Martín Pérez
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Nick Martinez
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nick Martinez
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Nick Martinez
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Martín Pérez
Ryan Vilade
TB · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Martín Pérez
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Martín Pérez
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Martín Pérez
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Dominic Smith
ATL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Brewer Hicklen
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Nick Martinez
Nick Madrigal
TB · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 29% against 32%.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Martín Pérez
Jorge Mateo
TB · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Martín Pérez
Nick Fortes
TB · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Martín Pérez
Ha-Seong Kim
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Martín Pérez
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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