BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
73-73 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W3 · 8-2 L10
@THU 7:40 PM ETCWS HOME PARK
75-70 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
CHICAGOCWS
Weather
73°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jared Jones
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.46
IP
78.2
K/9
10.5
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS5.68 ERA · 28.8% K · 11.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
Hagen Smith
LHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
0.56
IP
16.0
K/9
12.9
BB/9
5.6
WHIP
0.94
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 35.1% K · 10.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jared Jones · Under 15.5 <16 Outs

early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup

-157 DraftKings61% book82% +21pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT CWS

Game Markets

PIT @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

32%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore CWS by 0.35 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.37, CWS 4.02
  • Jared Jones (PIT) vs Hagen Smith (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

31%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

30%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

19%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against CWS
HS

Hagen Smith

CWS SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

10%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

19%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

10%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JARED JONES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%25.5%OPS-against.645
vs Left-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.766
CWS vs LHP (team)OPS.732K%24.8%

HAGEN SMITH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%39.0%OPS-against.335
vs Left-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.554
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.756K%23.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CWS BATTERS vs JARED JONES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs HAGEN SMITH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 2·CWS 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
PIT 2·CWS 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%PIT
PIT 17 · CWS 13 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-09PIT 4-2
2026-09-08PIT 9-3 · Blowout
2025-07-20CWS 7-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT52¢ · 52%
CWS52¢ · 52%
Total 7.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
CWS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→7.5→8.5→9→7.5→9→8.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.292L15 team wOBA
-24 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CWS OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT73° · 8mph out to LF
RATE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
73°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity66%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO