AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs CWS
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox
Thursday, September 10, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PIT Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CWS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CWS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CWS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CWS wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
PIT STARTER
Jared Jones
GOOD- 6.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 109
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
CWS STARTER
Hagen Smith
AVERAGE- 5.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- 95
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Hagen Smith grades avg (Pitching+ 95) vs Jared Jones grades good (Pitching+ 109)
PIT LINEUP
1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 62% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Oneil Cruz (L)hit 66% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 66% · HR 15%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Nick Gonzales (R)hit 67% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Brandon Lowe (L)hit 62% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
6Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 57% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Jake Mangum (S)hit 59% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 54% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Jared Triolo (R)hit 55% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
CWS LINEUP
1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 64% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Miguel Vargas (R)hit 62% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
3Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 55% · HR 26%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
4Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 60% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
5Colson Montgomery (L)hit 53% · HR 21%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
6Braden Montgomery (S)hit 56% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Chase Meidroth (R)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Tristan Peters (L)hit 59% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Jake Rogers (R)hit 44% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PIT @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
42%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
34%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.61 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: PIT 4.41, CWS 4.20
- Jared Jones (PIT) vs Hagen Smith (CWS)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Jared Jones
PIT SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
17%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
35%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
9%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
30%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
19%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
- 78% to reach 5+ against CWS
Hagen Smith
CWS SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
9%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
19%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
10%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against PIT
Munetaka Murakami
CWS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Jared Jones
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Jones
Oneil Cruz
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hagen Smith
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jared Jones
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Hagen Smith
Brandon Lowe
PIT · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Hagen Smith
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Hagen Smith
Konnor Griffin
PIT · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Hagen Smith
Sam Antonacci
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Jones
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Jared Jones
Rafael Flores Jr.
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Hagen Smith
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Hagen Smith
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jared Jones
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Jared Jones
Jared Triolo
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hagen Smith
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Jones
Spencer Horwitz
PIT · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hagen Smith
Jake Rogers
CWS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Jared Jones
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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