AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

HOU vs PHI

Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies

Thursday, September 10, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU

0·0

PHILADELPHIAPHI

TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV78.6

FB92

FB92.2

FB94.7

FB95.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 25 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

PHI Over 4.5 runs

40%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 7-for-23 (.304) with 0 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI

LINEUP EDGEPHI

HOU STARTER

Cristian Javier

AVERAGE

5.1
PROJECTED Ks: 100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 28% whiffSweeper · 26% · 40% whiffChangeup · 16% · 32% whiff

PHI STARTER

Zack Wheeler

GOOD

8.1
PROJECTED Ks: 112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 30% whiffSinker · 16% · 12% whiffSplit-Finger · 15% · 46% whiff

Zack Wheeler grades good (Pitching+ 112) vs Cristian Javier grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

HOU LINEUP

1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 62% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 70% · HR 27%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 58% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
4Jose Altuve (R)hit 53% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
5Daulton Varsho (L)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
6Christian Walker (R)hit 53% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Cam Smith (R)hit 50% · HR 11%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Taylor Trammell (L)hit 43% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
9Christian Vázquez (R)hit 42% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
42%
1+ HIT
9%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 66% · HR 40%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
40%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
42%
3+ BASES
39%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
2Trea Turner (R)hit 62% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Harper (L)hit 68% · HR 30%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
30%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
32%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
4Luis Arraez (L)hit 68% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
5Alec Bohm (R)hit 59% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
6Bryson Stott (L)hit 55% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 61% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Justin Crawford (L)hit 54% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
9Rafael Marchán (S)hit 43% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
9%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

HOU PHI

Game Markets

HOU @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

56%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

45%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

31%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore HOU by 1.09 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: HOU 3.50, PHI 4.59
Cristian Javier (HOU) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Run on confirmed lineups

Cristian Javier

HOU SP · vs. PHI

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
60% to reach 5+ against PHI

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. HOU

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

42%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

65%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
93% to reach 5+ against HOU

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

40%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

42%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 40% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cristian Javier

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cristian Javier

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Zack Wheeler

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Cristian Javier

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cristian Javier

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Zack Wheeler

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cristian Javier

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cristian Javier

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Zack Wheeler

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Zack Wheeler

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cristian Javier

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cristian Javier

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Zack Wheeler

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Zack Wheeler

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Zack Wheeler

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 59%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Zack Wheeler

Rafael Marchán

PHI · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 59%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cristian Javier

Christian Vázquez

HOU · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 59%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Zack Wheeler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.