MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Zack Wheeler · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Cristian Javier · Over 14.5 15+ Outs
starter going deep into a manageable lineup
Cristian Javier · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Zack Wheeler · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
walk-prone, opp lineup turns pitch counts ugly
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
HOU @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
41%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
40%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore HOU by 0.68 runs across 5,000 trials.
HOU SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
33%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
40%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
26%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
PHI SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
37%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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