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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs SD

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
SAN DIEGOSD
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTSD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.7
FB93.9
CH83.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

55%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

San Diego wins

45%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESD
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

WSH STARTER

Jackson Kent

SHAKY
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
84
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 13% whiffChangeup · 19% · 33% whiffSlider · 18% · 29% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

SD STARTER

Walker Buehler

AVERAGE
3.0
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 25% · 19% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 13% whiffSinker · 20% · 12% whiff

Walker Buehler grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Jackson Kent grades poor (Pitching+ 84)

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Wood (L)hit 73% · HR 29%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    59%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dylan Crews (R)hit 61% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 66% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 66% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Yohandy Morales (R)hit 61% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Daylen Lile (L)hit 63% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 61% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 48% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    4%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jacob Young (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 74% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    58%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 60% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 67% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty France (R)hit 67% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 67% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Campusano (R)hit 63% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Austin Hays (R)hit 59% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Samad Taylor (R)hit 62% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jase Bowen (R)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH SD

Game Markets

WSH @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

63%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

65%

Run Line

SD -1.5

40%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

56%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore WSH by 0.41 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 5.01, SD 5.42
  • Jackson Kent (WSH) vs Walker Buehler (SD)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JK

Jackson Kent

WSH SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against SD
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

50%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against WSH
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Kent
AC

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Kent
TF

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Kent
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jackson Kent
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
LC

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Jackson Kent
ST

Samad Taylor

SD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Jackson Kent
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
KR

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
YM

Yohandy Morales

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Kent
AH

Austin Hays

SD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Kent
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
JB

Jase Bowen

SD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jackson Kent
NN

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

4%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walker Buehler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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