BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
67-80 · +5 NL EAST · L6 · 3-7 L10
@WED 4:10 PM ETSD HOME PARK
77-68 · +3 NL WEST · W3 · 5-5 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
87°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jackson Kent
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
5.55
IP
24.1
K/9
7.8
BB/9
7.0
WHIP
1.68
L5 STARTS5.77 ERA · 18.8% K · 17% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Walker Buehler
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
4.56
IP
136.1
K/9
7.7
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS2.57 ERA · 21.4% K · 5.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
23%
21%
17%
11%
11%
9%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballSliderChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH SD

Game Markets

WSH @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

SD -1.5

38%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore WSH by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.35, SD 4.67
  • Jackson Kent (WSH) vs Walker Buehler (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JK

Jackson Kent

WSH SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

33%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against SD
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACKSON KENT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.3%OPS-against.732
vs Left-handedK%26.9%OPS-against.641
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.704K%21.5%

WALKER BUEHLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.706
vs Left-handedK%20.9%OPS-against.767
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.787K%24.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs JACKSON KENT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs WALKER BUEHLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·SD 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 2·SD 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%WSH
WSH 52 · SD 52 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-09SD 5-4 · One-run game
2026-09-07SD 3-2 · One-run game
2026-05-31WSH 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH38¢ · 38%
SD66¢ · 66%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

SD OFFENSE

.284L15 team wOBA
-32 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 9mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity59%
Rain2%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO