AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

TEX vs SEA

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TEX @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TEXASTEX

0·0

SEATTLESEA

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

TEX Leadoff (R) vs HP

CT89.4

CT88.2

FB95.3

FB96.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

TEX Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · TEX LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SEA to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SEA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SEA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SEA wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYTEX Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETEX

LINEUP EDGESEA

TEX STARTER

Jacob deGrom

ELITE

6.8
PROJECTED Ks: 118
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 42% · 25% whiffSlider · 36% · 40% whiffChangeup · 13% · 47% whiff

SEA STARTER

Logan Gilbert

GOOD

6.7
PROJECTED Ks: 111
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 23% whiffSlider · 24% · 35% whiffSplit-Finger · 15% · 40% whiff

Logan Gilbert grades good (Pitching+ 111) vs Jacob deGrom grades elite (Pitching+ 118)

TEX LINEUP

1Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 62% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
2Corey Seager (L)hit 64% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
3Justin Foscue (R)hit 64% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 65% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Wyatt Langford (R)hit 58% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6Jake Burger (R)hit 59% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Logan O'Hoppe (R)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
8Elias Díaz (R)hit 47% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
9Cody Freeman (R)hit 48% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN

SEA LINEUP

1J.P. Crawford (L)hit 60% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 63% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 65% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Cal Raleigh (S)hit 57% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Julio Rodríguez (R)hit 62% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
6Josh Naylor (L)hit 61% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Taylor Ward (R)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Cole Young (L)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Weston Wilson (R)hit 49% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TEX SEA

Game Markets

TEX @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

25%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

27%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

29%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

25%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore SEA by 0.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: TEX 3.36, SEA 3.08
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Jacob deGrom

TEX SP · vs. SEA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

25%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

50%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

27%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

16%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.8 strikeouts
82% to reach 5+ against SEA

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. TEX

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
85% to reach 5+ against TEX

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jacob deGrom

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Jacob deGrom

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Logan Gilbert

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Jacob deGrom

Justin Foscue

TEX · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Logan Gilbert

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Jacob deGrom

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Logan Gilbert

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Logan Gilbert

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Logan Gilbert

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jacob deGrom

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Logan Gilbert

J.P. Crawford

SEA · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Jacob deGrom

Taylor Ward

SEA · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jacob deGrom

Logan O'Hoppe

TEX · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Gilbert

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 28%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jacob deGrom

Weston Wilson

SEA · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 24% against 28%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jacob deGrom

Cody Freeman

TEX · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Logan Gilbert

Elias Díaz

TEX · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Gilbert

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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