AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTB vs ATL
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TB Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TB Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 22 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TB STARTER
Nick Martinez
AVERAGE- 2.7
- PROJECTED Ks
- 104
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
ATL STARTER
Martín Pérez
SHAKY- 3.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 91
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Martín Pérez grades poor (Pitching+ 91) vs Nick Martinez grades avg (Pitching+ 104)
TB LINEUP
1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 74% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 69% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Junior Caminero (R)hit 72% · HR 32%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
32%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
4Liam Hicks (L)hit 66% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 61% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Chandler Simpson (L)hit 68% · HR 3%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
3%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Cedric Mullins (L)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Richie Palacios (L)hit 54% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
9Jorge Mateo (R)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
ATL LINEUP
1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 68% · HR 24%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 62% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
3Matt Olson (L)hit 59% · HR 23%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Michael Harris II (L)hit 67% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 58% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
6Mike Yastrzemski (L)hit 48% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
7Ozzie Albies (S)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Riley (R)hit 49% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
9Sean Murphy (R)hit 45% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
34%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.61 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: TB 4.89, ATL 4.72
- Nick Martinez (TB) vs Martín Pérez (ATL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Nick Martinez
TB SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
58%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
- 14% to reach 5+ against ATL
Martín Pérez
ATL SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
26%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
- 21% to reach 5+ against TB
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Martín Pérez
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Martín Pérez
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Nick Martinez
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Nick Martinez
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Martín Pérez
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Nick Martinez
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
3%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Martín Pérez
Liam Hicks
TB · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Martín Pérez
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Martín Pérez
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nick Martinez
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 28% against 30%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Martín Pérez
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 30%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Martín Pérez
Jorge Mateo
TB · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Martín Pérez
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 62%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
Sean Murphy
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 15%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Nick Martinez
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Martinez
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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