Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves · AI Model Read · Wednesday, September 9, 2026

BETFLYAISIGN IN

TAMPA BAYTB

86-58 · +1 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10

@WED 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK

85-60 · +1 NL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10

ATLANTAATL

Weather

89°F · 5mph out to LF

Home plate ump

Willie Traynor K-0.7%

Injuries

No injury concerns

Series so far

3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026

— PITCHING MATCHUP

Griffin Jax

RHP · TBPROBABLE

STUFF+104

ERA

3.82

94.1

K/9

9.6

BB/9

3.0

WHIP

1.27

L5 STARTS5.00 ERA · 27.5% K · 6.4% BB

PITCH MIX · SEASON

26%

23%

20%

17%

SweeperChangeupSinker4-Seam FastballCurveballCutter

Reynaldo López

RHP · ATLPROBABLE

STUFF+90

ERA

3.64

71.2

K/9

8.3

BB/9

3.6

WHIP

1.34

L5 STARTS4.07 ERA · 24.8% K · 7.6% BB

PITCH MIX · SEASON

55%

30%

12%

4-Seam FastballSliderCurveball

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 56%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

TB ATL

Game Markets

TB @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

28%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore ATL by 0.98 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: TB 4.91, ATL 3.93
Griffin Jax (TB) vs Reynaldo López (ATL)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Griffin Jax

TB SP · vs. ATL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
79% to reach 5+ against ATL

Reynaldo López

ATL SP · vs. TB

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
50% to reach 5+ against TB

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Griffin Jax

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Griffin Jax

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Griffin Jax

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Griffin Jax

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Griffin Jax

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Griffin Jax

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 15%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Griffin Jax

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Griffin Jax

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Griffin Jax

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GRIFFIN JAX SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.1%OPS-against.688

vs Left-handedK%27.7%OPS-against.741

ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.731K%22.1%

REYNALDO LÓPEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.713

vs Left-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.741

TB vs RHP (team)OPS.753K%18.6%

— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs GRIFFIN JAX

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TB BATTERS vs REYNALDO LÓPEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY

THIS SERIES

TB 1·ATL 0

3-game set · gm 2 of 3

2026 SEASON

TB 2·ATL 5

7 played · 12 remaining

ALL-TIME (2010-)

56%ATL

TB 31 · ATL 40 · since 2010

NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS

2026-09-08TB 7-1 · Blowout

2026-03-24ATL 3-2 · One-run game

2026-03-16ATL 11-2 · Blowout

— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Moneyline

TB49¢ · 49%

ATL55¢ · 55%

Total 8.5

Over52¢ · 52%

Under53¢ · 53%

Run line ±1.5

TB -1.5— · —

ATL +1.5— · —

First 5 innings

O 4.5— · —

U 4.5— · —

— LINEUP FORM · L15

TB OFFENSE

.313L15 team wOBA

-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

ATL OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA

-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

— ENVIRONMENT89° · 5mph out to LF

TRUIST PARK

108HR

HR factor1.08 · +

Runs factor1.03 · neutral

Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

89°F

Wind5 mph out to LF

Humidity37%

Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

TRAYNOR

Called K rate-0.7% vs avg

Runs per 9—

Games this yr31

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean

Injury report unavailable.

THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RAYS 56%

Mean score sim 4.9–3.9 · projected total 8.8 runs · partial lineups — will refresh

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