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PIT vs CWS

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT
0·0
CHICAGOCWS
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PIT DUGOUTCWS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP

CT89.2
CT89.6
FB95
SL84.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

PIT Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

46%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYPIT Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Chicago WS wins

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPIT
LINEUP EDGEPIT

PIT STARTER

Lake Bachar

SHAKY
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 16% whiffSlider · 23% · 39% whiffCurveball · 19% · 39% whiff

CWS STARTER

Davis Martin

SHAKY
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
86
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 25% whiffSinker · 19% · 8% whiffCurveball · 14% · 41% whiff

Davis Martin grades poor (Pitching+ 86) vs Lake Bachar grades poor (Pitching+ 94)

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 68% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 75% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    57%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 71% · HR 16%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Nick Gonzales (R)hit 72% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Oneil Cruz (L)hit 71% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 66% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 62% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 63% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 64% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 64% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 57% · HR 27%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Randal Grichuk (R)hit 70% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Colson Montgomery (L)hit 52% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Braden Montgomery (S)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Tristan Peters (L)hit 64% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Chase Meidroth (R)hit 57% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Kyle Teel (L)hit 52% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT CWS

Game Markets

PIT @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

61%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

28%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

58%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore CWS by 1.03 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 5.66, CWS 4.63
  • Lake Bachar (PIT) vs Davis Martin (CWS)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
LB

Lake Bachar

PIT SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against CWS
DM

Davis Martin

CWS SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

50%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against PIT
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Davis Martin
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Lake Bachar
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Davis Martin
EV

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Davis Martin
RG

Randal Grichuk

CWS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Lake Bachar
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Davis Martin
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Davis Martin
KG

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Davis Martin
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
RJ

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Davis Martin
AB

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 29% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Lake Bachar
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Lake Bachar
SH

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Davis Martin
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
JG

Jacob Gonzalez

PIT · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Davis Martin
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
KT

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 28% against 33%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Lake Bachar

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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