Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Carson Benge · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Bo Bichette · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
reaches base often, gets pushed across
Juan Soto · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
middle-order + runners-on profile
Francisco Lindor · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
expected stats outrun the slash line
A.J. Ewing · Under 2.5 <3 Total Bases
extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher
Luis Torrens · Under 2.5 <3 Total Bases
platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling
Janson Junk · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Bo Bichette · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
form + position drive the RBI projection
Juan Soto · Over 0.5 1+ HR
career numbers vs this profile + ballpark
Griffin Conine · Over 0.5 1+ HR
matchup grade lights up the HR pricing
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
NYM @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYM to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
31%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
NYM projects to outscore MIA by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
21%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
37%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
MIA SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
52%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
NYM · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.
NYM · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.
MIA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 63%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).
Cavernous OF.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.6–4.2 · projected total 8.8 runs · built on locked lineups
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