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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIN vs DET

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.6
CV78.9
FB94.6
FB93.4
FB92.6
CH83.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIN Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIN Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 6

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

DET Over 4.5 runs

36%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 13-for-38 (.342) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEDET

MIN STARTER

Zebby Matthews

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 13% whiffSlider · 22% · 34% whiffChangeup · 13% · 18% whiff

DET STARTER

Keider Montero

AVERAGE
2.0
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 14% whiffSinker · 22% · 9% whiffSlider · 19% · 29% whiff

Keider Montero grades avg (Pitching+ 95) vs Zebby Matthews grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Luke Keaschall (R)hit 65% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brooks Lee (S)hit 63% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 65% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 63% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kaelen Culpepper (R)hit 62% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Trevor Larnach (L)hit 62% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Royce Lewis (R)hit 58% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Victor Caratini (S)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Walker Jenkins (L)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 67% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 63% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Colt Keith (L)hit 66% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Riley Greene (L)hit 69% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Dillon Dingler (R)hit 66% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Brett Callahan (L)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Max Clark (L)hit 57% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ben Malgeri (R)hit 57% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9John Peck (R)hit 52% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN DET

Game Markets

MIN @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

DET -1.5

40%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore MIN by 0.47 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.11, DET 4.58
  • Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs Keider Montero (DET)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
ZM

Zebby Matthews

MIN SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against DET
KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.0 strikeouts
  • 4% to reach 5+ against MIN
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Keider Montero
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Keider Montero
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Keider Montero
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Keider Montero
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
TL

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Keider Montero
KC

Kaelen Culpepper

MIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Keider Montero
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Keider Montero
BM

Ben Malgeri

DET · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
BC

Brett Callahan

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
JP

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Zebby Matthews
VC

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Keider Montero
WJ

Walker Jenkins

MIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Keider Montero

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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