MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jake Bennett · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
starter going deep into a manageable lineup
Ryan Johnson · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Ryan Johnson · Under 14.5 <15 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
LAA @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
56%
Game Total
Over 8.5
60%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
47%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
60%
THE READ
BOS projects to outscore LAA by 1.30 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAA SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
60%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BOS SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
53%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Doubles factory (Green Monster).
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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