BETFLYAISIGN IN
HOUSTONHOU
74-71 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@WED 6:40 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
81-64 · +2 NL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
82°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Hunter Brown
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
3.31
IP
87.0
K/9
9.6
BB/9
4.8
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS2.96 ERA · 25.2% K · 11.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
28%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballSlider
Cristopher Sánchez
LHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+118
ERA
2.58
IP
181.1
K/9
10.3
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS2.31 ERA · 26.2% K · 5.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
39%
19%
SinkerChangeupSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU PHI

Game Markets

HOU @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

37%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

38%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore HOU by 0.43 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 3.38, PHI 3.81
  • Hunter Brown (HOU) vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HB

Hunter Brown

HOU SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against PHI
CS

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

55%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

99%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.9 strikeouts
  • 97% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

HUNTER BROWN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.612
vs Left-handedK%27.3%OPS-against.694
PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.714K%22.2%

CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.739
vs Left-handedK%36.8%OPS-against.345
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.730K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs HUNTER BROWN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 1·PHI 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
HOU 1·PHI 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%HOU
HOU 34 · PHI 31 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-08HOU 6-5 · One-run game
2025-06-26HOU 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2025-06-26HOU 2-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU43¢ · 43%
PHI62¢ · 62%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→11.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

PHI OFFENSE

.289L15 team wOBA
-27 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 8mph out to CF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity53%
Rain3%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO