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AI MODEL READ

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HOU vs PHI

Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU
0·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

HOU DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.9
FB93.2
FB91.8
FB94.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEPHI

HOU STARTER

Cristian Javier

AVERAGE
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 28% whiffSweeper · 26% · 40% whiffChangeup · 16% · 32% whiff

PHI STARTER

Zack Wheeler

GOOD
8.1
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 30% whiffSinker · 16% · 12% whiffSplit-Finger · 15% · 46% whiff

Zack Wheeler grades good (Pitching+ 112) vs Cristian Javier grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 72% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 59% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jose Altuve (R)hit 55% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Yainer Diaz (R)hit 63% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Walker (R)hit 56% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Daulton Varsho (L)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cam Smith (R)hit 48% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jorge Barrosahit 45% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 64% · HR 32%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    32%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 66% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 68% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Bryson Stott (L)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Brandon Marsh (L)hit 60% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Justin Crawford (L)hit 58% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 50% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Bryan De La Cruz (R)hit 55% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

HOU PHI

Game Markets

HOU @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

41%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore HOU by 0.66 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 3.60, PHI 4.26
  • Cristian Javier (HOU) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CJ

Cristian Javier

HOU SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against PHI
ZW

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

42%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
  • 94% to reach 5+ against HOU
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cristian Javier
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cristian Javier
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Cristian Javier
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristian Javier
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
YD

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristian Javier
BC

Bryan De La Cruz

PHI · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Cristian Javier
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristian Javier
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristian Javier
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 25% against 28%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristian Javier
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
JB

Jorge Barrosa

HOU · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 61%.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Zack Wheeler

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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