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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

COL vs NYY

Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the COL @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

COLORADOCOL
0·0
NEW YORKNYY
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

COL DUGOUTNYY DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

COL Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL85.4
FB93.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

COL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYY to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYY -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYY

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYY wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCOL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

COL STARTER

Ryan Feltner

SHAKY
3.2
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 13% whiffSlider · 23% · 26% whiffChangeup · 18% · 46% whiff

NYY STARTER

Max Fried

GOOD
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
109
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 22% · 29% whiffSinker · 22% · 20% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 19% · 20% whiff

Max Fried grades good (Pitching+ 109) vs Ryan Feltner grades poor (Pitching+ 92)

COL LINEUP

  1. 1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 69% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Cole Carrigg (S)hit 62% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3TJ Rumfield (L)hit 67% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Hunter Goodman (R)hit 63% · HR 29%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Mickey Moniak (L)hit 64% · HR 26%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Karroshit 58% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brett Sullivan (L)hit 58% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Connor Norby (R)hit 54% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Zac Veen (L)hit 48% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Ben Rice (L)hit 79% · HR 38%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    79%

    1+ HIT

    45%

    2+ HITS

    38%

    HOME RUN

    61%

    2+ BASES

    49%

    3+ BASES

    41%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    68%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 72% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    59%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Aaron Judgehit 81% · HR 38%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    81%

    1+ HIT

    47%

    2+ HITS

    38%

    HOME RUN

    63%

    2+ BASES

    50%

    3+ BASES

    43%

    4+ BASES

    55%

    RBI

    32%

    2+ RBIs

    66%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis García Jr. (L)hit 81% · HR 38%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    81%

    1+ HIT

    48%

    2+ HITS

    38%

    HOME RUN

    63%

    2+ BASES

    50%

    3+ BASES

    42%

    4+ BASES

    59%

    RBI

    34%

    2+ RBIs

    62%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Spencer Jones (L)hit 75% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    40%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    56%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 71% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ryan McMahon (L)hit 66% · HR 21%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Austin Wells (L)hit 59% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9José Caballero (R)hit 61% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

COL NYY

Game Markets

COL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

69%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

61%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

62%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

54%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

64%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore COL by 1.94 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.07, NYY 6.02
  • Ryan Feltner (COL) vs Max Fried (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RF

Ryan Feltner

COL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

28%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against NYY
MF

Max Fried

NYY SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against COL
LJ

Luis García Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

38%

Hits

1+ hits

85%

Hits

2+ hits

50%

Total Bases

2+ bases

68%

Total Bases

3+ bases

54%

Total Bases

4+ bases

45%

RBIs

1+ RBI

60%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

35%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 35% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
AJ

Aaron Judge

NYY · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

38%

Hits

1+ hits

85%

Hits

2+ hits

50%

Total Bases

2+ bases

68%

Total Bases

3+ bases

53%

Total Bases

4+ bases

45%

RBIs

1+ RBI

57%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

33%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 33% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

38%

Hits

1+ hits

83%

Hits

2+ hits

48%

Total Bases

2+ bases

66%

Total Bases

3+ bases

52%

Total Bases

4+ bases

44%

RBIs

1+ RBI

51%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
SJ

Spencer Jones

NYY · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

60%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
HG

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Max Fried
MM

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Fried
CB

Cody Bellinger

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
RM

Ryan McMahon

NYY · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Max Fried
GJ

George Lombard Jr.

NYY · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 41% against 37% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
TR

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Fried
CC

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 69%.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Fried
JC

José Caballero

NYY · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
AW

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 69%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Feltner
BS

Brett Sullivan

COL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 69%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Max Fried
KK

Kyle Karros

COL · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 69%.

  • Batting 6
  • Facing Max Fried
CN

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 69%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Max Fried
ZV

Zac Veen

COL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 69%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Fried

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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