BETFLYAISIGN IN
COLORADOCOL
55-89 · +5 NL WEST · L2 · 3-7 L10
@WED 7:05 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
82-62 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
81°F · 9mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Tomoyuki Sugano
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
5.19
IP
131.2
K/9
5.4
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS8.25 ERA · 15.7% K · 3.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
22%
20%
19%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSinkerSliderSweeperCutterCurveball
Will Warren
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.16
IP
136.1
K/9
8.8
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS4.07 ERA · 19.4% K · 10.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
28%
20%
11%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Will Warren · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

K projection runs under in this matchup

-156 FanDuel61% book72% +11pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 66%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

COL NYY

Game Markets

COL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

66%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

55%

Game Total

Over 8.5

64%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

65%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

49%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

63%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore COL by 1.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 4.48, NYY 6.05
  • Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) vs Will Warren (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TS

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
  • 10% to reach 5+ against NYY
WW

Will Warren

NYY SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against COL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TOMOYUKI SUGANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%13.5%OPS-against.799
vs Left-handedK%14.3%OPS-against.891
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.709K%24.9%

WILL WARREN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.9%OPS-against.740
vs Left-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.798
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.756K%22.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs TOMOYUKI SUGANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

COL BATTERS vs WILL WARREN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
COL 0·NYY 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
COL 0·NYY 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%NYY
COL 10 · NYY 13 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-08NYY 5-3
2025-05-25NYY 5-4 · One-run game
2025-05-24NYY 13-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
COL33¢ · 33%
NYY71¢ · 71%
Total 9
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
COL -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→6.5→9→8.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

COL OFFENSE

.319L15 team wOBA
+3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

NYY OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 9mph out to LF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind9 mph out to LF
Humidity51%
Rain3%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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