MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Foster Griffin · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
stuff doesn't translate to Ks vs this lineup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CLE @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
34%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.74 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
CLE SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
BAL SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
47%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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