BETFLYAISIGN IN
CHICAGOCHC
81-65 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L3 · 4-6 L10
@WED 7:40 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
90-56 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 5-5 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
75°F · 6mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kevin Gausman
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
4.38
IP
162.1
K/9
9.2
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS4.95 ERA · 29.1% K · 6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
39%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
Logan Henderson
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.48
IP
83.1
K/9
10.0
BB/9
1.5
WHIP
0.79
L5 STARTS2.18 ERA · 26.3% K · 3.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
31%
20%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Logan Henderson · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks

contact lineup limits the K ceiling

-132 FanDuel57% book67% +10pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 63%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC MIL

Game Markets

CHC @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

44%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CHC by 1.00 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 3.39, MIL 4.39
  • Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs Logan Henderson (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against MIL
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KEVIN GAUSMAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.766
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.675
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.755K%21.8%

LOGAN HENDERSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.4%OPS-against.551
vs Left-handedK%30.3%OPS-against.560
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.755K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs KEVIN GAUSMAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs LOGAN HENDERSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 0·MIL 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 6·MIL 8
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%MIL
CHC 156 · MIL 172 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-08MIL 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-07MIL 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-03CHC 2-1 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CHC47¢ · 47%
MIL57¢ · 57%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
CHC -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→8→7→7.5→4.5→8→4.5→8→4.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.342L15 team wOBA
+26 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

MIL OFFENSE

.340L15 team wOBA
+24 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT75° · 6mph out to RF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
75°F
Wind6 mph out to RF
Humidity72%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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