AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs SD

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH

0·0

SAN DIEGOSD

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.7

SL83.3

CV79.8

CV78.2

CH84.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

54%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

San Diego wins

46%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESD

LINEUP EDGEWSH

WSH STARTER

Jackson Kent

SHAKY

3.8
PROJECTED Ks: 84
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 13% whiffChangeup · 19% · 33% whiffSlider · 18% · 29% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

SD STARTER

Walker Buehler

AVERAGE

3.2
PROJECTED Ks: 97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 25% · 19% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 13% whiffSinker · 20% · 12% whiff

Walker Buehler grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Jackson Kent grades poor (Pitching+ 84)

WSH LINEUP

1James Wood (L)hit 69% · HR 27%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
2Abimelec Ortiz (L)hit 56% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
3Dylan Crews (R)hit 57% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
4CJ Abrams (L)hit 62% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Brady House (R)hit 55% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
6Daylen Lile (L)hit 60% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Yohandy Morales (R)hit 56% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 50% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Harry Ford (R)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
2Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
3Manny Machado (R)hit 59% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4Ty France (R)hit 62% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 60% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Luis Campusano (R)hit 55% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Dustin Harris (L)hit 54% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 50% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Freddy Fermin (R)hit 45% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH SD

Game Markets

WSH @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

SD -1.5

38%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore WSH by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: WSH 4.44, SD 4.74
Jackson Kent (WSH) vs Walker Buehler (SD)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Jackson Kent

WSH SP · vs. SD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
32% to reach 5+ against SD

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. WSH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
21% to reach 5+ against WSH

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Walker Buehler

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Walker Buehler

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jackson Kent

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jackson Kent

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jackson Kent

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Jackson Kent

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Walker Buehler

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Jackson Kent

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Walker Buehler

Yohandy Morales

WSH · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Walker Buehler

Abimelec Ortiz

WSH · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Walker Buehler

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Walker Buehler

Dustin Harris

SD · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 59%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Jackson Kent

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jackson Kent

Jorbit Vivas

WSH · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Walker Buehler

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jackson Kent

Harry Ford

WSH · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Walker Buehler

Freddy Fermin

SD · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 59%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jackson Kent

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.