BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
67-79 · +4 NL EAST · L5 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 9:40 PM ETSD HOME PARK
76-68 · +3 NL WEST · W2 · 4-6 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
88°F · 9mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Riley Cornelio
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
5.96
IP
22.2
K/9
9.1
BB/9
8.3
WHIP
1.81
L5 STARTS5.45 ERA · 17.1% K · 22.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
49%
Slider4-Seam Fastball
Casey Mize
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.64
IP
113.2
K/9
7.9
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS4.66 ERA · 13.9% K · 5.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
25%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerSlurve
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH SD

Game Markets

WSH @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

SD -1.5

36%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore WSH by 0.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 3.96, SD 4.24
  • Riley Cornelio (WSH) vs Casey Mize (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RC

Riley Cornelio

WSH SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

17%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

15%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against SD
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

RILEY CORNELIO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.5%OPS-against.936
vs Left-handedK%16.1%OPS-against.569
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.706K%21.5%

CASEY MIZE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.506
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.739K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs RILEY CORNELIO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs CASEY MIZE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·SD 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 2·SD 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%WSH
WSH 52 · SD 51 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-07SD 3-2 · One-run game
2026-05-31WSH 4-2
2026-05-30WSH 9-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH38¢ · 38%
SD65¢ · 65%
Total 7.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→6.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

SD OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 9mph in from CF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind9 mph in from CF
Humidity40%
Rain4%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO